El Niño and La Niña are natural phenomena described by the WMO as follows:Major Drivers of Earth’s Climate System”. After his three-year La Niña associated with ocean cooling, the world faces an 80% chance that he will experience an El Niño between July and September.
The telltale sign is sea level warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s slightly less likely, but it can occur even earlier.
WMO Secretary General Professor Petteri Taalas highlighted that the eight years from 2015 to 2022 were the hottest on record, according to the agency’s State of the Global Climate report. But for three of those years, […] this acted as a temporary brake on global warming”.
The WMO Director-General also said that the progress of El NiñoMost likely to lead to a new surge in global warming Increase your chances of breaking temperature records. ”
Preparing for El Niño
A “very strong” El Niño event in 2014-2015, combined with atmospheric warming from greenhouse gases, made 2016 the hottest year on record. The WMO says the impact of future El Niños on global temperatures is likely to be most pronounced in 2024.
Professor Taalas argued that the world “needs to be prepared” for El Niño, which could lead to more extreme weather and climate change, including severe rainfall and drought in some regions.
he also Early warning services to help you avoid the worst effects of extreme weather and take actionAccording to the WMO, about 100 countries around the world currently do not have adequate weather services.
Floods and droughts in some areas
The WMO says there are no indications so far of the strength or duration of a potential El Niño in the future. No two El Niño events are the sameso close monitoring is required to identify impacts.
Still, officials say El Niño events are “usually associated” with increased rainfall that can cause flooding in southern South America, the southern United States, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa.
While WMO points it out May bring “rest” Long-horn drought in Africa from El Niño It can also cause ‘severe drought’ Australia, Indonesia, parts of South Asia.
Impact on food security
Given the record numbers of people facing severe food insecurity, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) last week issued a “scrutiny of areas facing severe food insecurity around the world. there is,” he said. particularly susceptible to El Niño” and supporting countries on risk reduction.
FAO pointed out South Africa, Central America, Caribbean Parts of Asia are areas of particular concern, where many people are already food insecure, and “the critical harvest season falls under typical El Niño weather patterns with drier conditions.” .
The agency also flagged major grain producers and exporters such as: Australia, Brazil and South Africa are among the countries at risk of drought conditions.Meanwhile, excessive rainfall could affect grain exporters Argentina, Turkey and the United States.
act early to prevent hunger
“Early warning is We must act early and predictablyand will support Members in these efforts as resources permit,” said Rein Paulsen, FAO Director for Emergency Situations and Resilience.
The agency has been working with other UN agencies for years to develop a Predictive Action Plan for a number of countries and, if the predictions come true, will be able to “act quickly with governments and partners.” I emphasized that I was ready to do it.
Timely interventions that can be planned in advance include setting up community seed stores, assessing strategic food reserves, and enhancing animal health surveillance.