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In 1950, British computer scientist Alan Turing proposed an imitation game, the Turing Test, to determine whether computers have the ability to think and imitate humans. Since then he’s been 73 years, humans looking for answers, having heart-to-heart conversations with an artificial intelligence named ChatGPT. why? It has the ability to reject inappropriate user requests, accept mistakes, answer follow-up questions, and conduct full-fledged conversations. ChatGPT’s creator rushed to launch GPT-4 as well, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it “the most capable and tuned model to date, still flawed and still limited. It is called So what’s next?
What is general artificial intelligence?
A hypothetical theoretical form of AI, artificial general intelligence refers to intelligent machines that mimic human intelligence, understand and perform intelligent tasks, and can perform a wide range of activities. Certain characteristics such as common sense, background knowledge, transfer learning, abstraction, and causality are required for an AI to be classified as an AGI. The vision of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is a good example of what AGI could look like.
Artificial intelligence can be classified into three categories: artificial narrow sense intelligence, artificial general intelligence, and artificial superintelligence. Now a roboticist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who works with iRobot co-founder Rodney Brooks at his ANI level, he believes AGI won’t be in shape until at least the year 2300. AI is the most popular one. “Generative AI, with its ability to create and automate content and tasks, will create greater inclusiveness and access to business, education, employment opportunities, and healthcare, and enable a world that can graduate to a post-privilege global economic system. We will create it,” said Sunil Gopinath, CEO of Rakuten India. Generative AI includes Dall-E 2, Midjourney, Deep Dream Generator and Big Sleep.
Opportunities and market players
According to industry reports, the global AGI market is expected to reach approximately US$144.2 billion by 2026, at a CAGR of 41.6%. AGI means machines that are on par with humans to perform tasks and activities. Acknowledge that all possibilities of AGI, such as helping humans perform their daily activities, are hypothetical, as AGI systems and technologies do not exist.
Players operating in the AGI space include OpenAI, AGI Innovations Inc, Apprente, DeepMind, and New Sapience. Building advanced AI requires significant investment and advanced technical infrastructure. So, is the AI space just for big companies? “In my opinion, large and small players coexist and play their fair share in the AI space. Startups will continue to focus on generating ideas and building prototypes, while incumbents will be involved in accelerating startups, integrating ideas and solutions, marketing, and building economies of scale,” said Aranca Technology Research and Arpit Sharma, Senior Manager, Advisory, said.
However, Builder.ai co-founder and CEO Sachin Dev Duggal said: “The power of AI’s loud voice can drown out small voices and lead to a homogenized global view that ignores local perspectives and cultures. It raises questions about national sovereignty and the potential for misuse of this technology.”
The future towards AGI
The biggest challenge or concern in developing AGI is its value and ethical understanding. “Think of the current stage of AI development as a newborn without a clear value system. There is potential for rapid and significant progress. It includes the lack of structure in machine-human conversations that can lead to biased algorithms and loss of context across different demographics,” Duggal shares.
One notable criticism was the philosopher Hubert Dreyfus, who argued that machines cannot acquire intelligence because they have no bodies, no childhood, no cultural conventions. Human knowledge cannot be incorporated into computers. Researchers argue that AGI can be developed with large models, datasets, and computational power. As AI continues to evolve, AGI may become a reality in the near future. However, it is also an existential threat to humanity as it can surpass human intelligence and evolve into what is known as superintelligence (ASI).
McKinsey and Company stated in its 2020 report, “An executive primer on artificial general intelligenceshared four ways to measure the progress of AI becoming AGI. This includes: 1. 2-year-old object recognition ability, 2. 4-year-old language comprehension, 3. 6-year-old manual dexterity, 4. 8-year-old social comprehension, this method is an alternative to the Turing test. It is said
ChatGPT, Google’s BARD, and their Echo platform and tools may feel like AGI due to their advanced features, but this is a language model built on large datasets. In March, a petition calling for a ban on AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 for at least six months, “A moratorium on giant AI experiments: an open letter,” was launched, gathering more than 27,565 signatures. Recently, US President Joe Biden called for a meeting with key players in the AI industry, including Microsoft, Google and OpenAI, to discuss product safety and potential risks.
GPT-4 is one step closer to achieving AGI and is expected to arrive much earlier than Brooks’ anticipated timeline. 2050, 2030 and even he could be 2027.